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Premier League Betting: Do "Bogey Teams" Really Exist?

Betting Strategies | Article posted on February 14th, 2015

Published: 10th February 2015

– Updated: 12th February 2015
Do certain Premier League clubs enjoy a perpetual edge over a rival? Do bookmakers take so called “bogey sides” into account when framing their football betting odds? Today Premier League betting analyst Mark Taylor takes a look at the data to determine if bogey teams really do exist in England’s top flight.
One of the most persistent ideas in Premier League betting and football betting in general, is the existence of so called “bogey sides”. Teams which appear to be able to regularly beat or avoid defeat against a particular opponent over a prolonged period of matches.
Head to head records are readily available at such football betting sites as bettingexpert Clash orSoccerbase and it is easy to search such databases to quickly find a team which holds an excellent recent record against another.
Match commentators often include reference to such head to head records and it is not uncommon to hear that Team A has failed to beat Team B since 1999, suggesting that a win for the former would be considered a major upset. And this of course has implications for football betting on the game outcome.
Assessing The Data
In trying to examine whether results in the past, often from the distant past and involving entirely different sets of players, might have an undue influence on a game taking place now, we need to examine historical football betting data.
One major concern when presenting apparently compelling evidence for a theory is the danger of cherry picking the data.
Selective cut-off points can typically make results appear more unusual than it really is. If a side is quoted as being unbeaten in the previous five games against today’s opposition, it is almost certain that they lost their encounter prior to the start of the quoted five game sequence.
The sample is a biased one. A selective run of games, where an entirely natural clumping of wins, draws or losses has occurred has been chosen at a particular starting point within a larger sequence to create an impression that is not representative of the larger sample. And therefore, it may not be representative of what will occur in the immediate future.
Similarly, by quoting successful runs

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