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Ten Tips for Spread Betting on Soccer


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Ten Tips for Spread Betting on Soccer




It is an indisputable fact that most of us who bet on sport will lose in the long run. Apparently 98% of sports betters do not make any profits over a sustained period of time. That figure does seem to be excessive but there is no getting away from the fact that it is very hard to win money betting on sport.


The best way of increasing the chances of winning is to focus on a niche sport or market. Betting on just about anything will not work as there are so many variable to consider when betting on sport. The choice of sports and markets has never been greater and there is a danger of not focusing on a potentially profitable area.


Another strategy is to subscribe to tipping services. Websites like System Lays will highlight the good and bad and there’s nothing wrong with following a tipster with a proven track record. Another approach is to adhere to proven strategies. This means that common mistakes can be avoided and a winning approach established.


In terms of spread betting on soccer a number of guidelines can be followed to increase the chances of staying in profit. Ten strategies for soccer spread betting are described below:


Spread Betting on Soccer Top 10 Tips:

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1. Close a Position to Guarantee a Profit


In the good old days of betting the only option was to place a bet and let the bet run to expiry. Before the onset of exchanges and in-play betting there were no opportunities to take a profit and at the same time cover the stake. There are now literally hundreds of fixtures each day on which is to bet as the match develops and take advantage of a good trading position.


This is the case with supremacy markets in soccer spread betting. Once a team scores a goal the supremacy spread will move to make that team a bigger favourite or smaller underdog. The supremacy spread for the Real Madrid and Manchester United first leg match in the Champions League was 0.85-1.05.


United scored first in that match and anyone who had sold the Real Madrid supremacy would have been in a strong trading position. Madrid’s supremacy could then have been bought at the revised price to guarantee a profit even if Madrid had come back to score three goals to cover the original spread.


2. Close a Position to Minimise a Loss


In the same example of the Real Madrid versus Manchester United match bettors buying the Madrid supremacy would have been in a weak trading position after the first goal was scored. The situation could have got a great deal worse if United had won the match. Robin van Persie had three great chances to give United a first leg lead and that would have meant more losses for buyers of the Real Madrid supremacy.


After United scored the first goal supremacy buyers at 1.05 could have closed the bet to minismie the loss. As it was Madrid equalised and the match was drawn which helped buyers of Madrid’s supremacy. However if the match and scoring had panned out differently those backing Madrid to win the game by more than 1.05 goals would have incurred greater losses. Closing the bet early puts a limit on the losses regardless of the final score and supremacy.


3. Use Statistics to Win on Corners


Betting on the number of corners in a match might seem unwise. However, with the right statistics profits can be made from this market. Simply by keeping a note of how many corners a team wins and concedes, both home and way, winnings can be generated in the second half of the English domestic season and as the European competitions reach the later stages.


For each match look at the figures for each team’s average corners won and conceded. If both are low-corner teams sell the number of corners in the match. If both teams have high corner records buy the number of corners in the match. Few punters bother to maintain these records but by doing so there is a definite edge to be enjoyed over the bookmakers.


There are several factors which determine the total number of corners in a match. High corner counts are often associated with teams that attack with width. Some teams prefer to clear the ball rather than conceding a corner. The larger the pitch the greater the width of the touchline and hence more corners. Windy weather tends to increase the count, as does rain.


With corner count information to hand buying or selling corners can be done with confidence after the mid-point of the season.


4. Select Matches for Low Bookings Counts


Towards the end of each football season the English Premiership fixture list contains many “dead matches”. These are games that don’t mean much to either team. Most fans don’t like these fixtures but they could produce profits when selling the total bookings in a match.


Sides that have no chance of qualifying for Europe but are well clear of relegation often go through the motions when they meet. That means betting on supremacy or goals is fraught with danger so a sensible policy is to bet on the number of yellow and red cards. History proves that the last weeks of the season produce far fewer cards in the Premiership than any other period.

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The traditional bookmakers and spread operators work on the basis of 10 points for a yellow card and 25 points for red card. The total match card score, known as the make-up, is calculated by assigning these values to each yellow and red card. These final figures are traditionally lower towards the end of the season when it is better to go low rather than go high.


5. Sell Goals After Early Goals


Generally speaking the number of goals in a soccer match slows down after an early goal or more than one early goal. In the Real Madrid and Manchester United Champions League match both teams scored in the first 30 minutes but there was no further scoring. If a team scores three goals in the first half they rarely go on to score six or more goals in total.


When an overwhelming favourite establishes a significant lead there is no incentive to maintain the pace and push on for more goals. The match has been won and physcologically the motivation to continue to force the game has decresed. Solid defending often prevents a reply from the opposition which means the total goals count will often fall below the adjusted expectation after early goals.


This tendency for teams leading to then sit back means the total number of goals in a match will slow down. Selling the number of goals in a match at half time when one side is leading 3-0 will bring long term profits when betting in the total goals markets with spread betting firms.


6. Identify Low Scoring Leagues


Statistics are now widely available for scoring records for many countries and leagues. Betfair have a part of their website dedicated to scoring records and these statistics are available for all the leagues for which Betfair have markets. A simple Google search will produce an extensive list of sites that include detailed scoring records for the main betting leagues.


The average number of goals in a soccer match across all competitions is marginally less than 2.5. Some leagues produce more goals than this and others fewer but spread firms prices generally don’t tend to be far removed from this average.


The main leagues in Switzerland and Australia and second tier leagues in France and Italy are relatively low scoring. The main leagues in Scandinavia, Belgium and Holland are relatively high scoring. Overall, goals are scored at about the average rate in the top leagues in England, Germany, Spain and Italy. Leagues in which the number of goals scored is furthest away from the mean provide the best betting opportunities.


7. Identify Referees Who Prefer Not To Show Cards


When betting on total bookings in a soccer match it is advisable to check an important factor which is the referee. Statistics are readily available for the number of yellow and red cards shown by referees who regularly take charge of matches in the English Premiership.


Some refs go for their pockets far more than others and will consider any excuse to show a card. But others try to avoid booking players until the case is clear that a player deserves to be disciplined for a bad tackle. Therefore, consider the low-carding referees when selling the total bookings in a match.


International friendlies are also renowned for seeing a relatively low number of bookings However, the bookmakers have now caught on so there are fewer opportunities than ten years ago to benefit from the lack of cards in non-competitive internationals.


8. Bet As Early As Possible


It might be better not to delay when betting on soccer spread markets  In this way the spreads on offer might be more attractive than the adjusted lines. A spread betting operator may set the spread based on a experts’ opinion or without information regarding injuries, team selection and playing conditions.


The spread will even out over time based on the weight of money rather than speculation and conjecture. The amount bet on either side of a soccer market will depend on the players selected and the relationship between the players and the manager. The adjusted spreads are likely to be more accurate which means the mistakes in the early quotes could provide good opportunities for bettors with the best sources of information.


9. Wait For Team News Before Betting on Shirts


One of the most volatile and unpredictable soccer spread markets involves the shirt numbers of the goalscorers in a match. The make-up is calculated simply by adding up the number on the shirts of the goalscorers in a match. If the final score is nil-nil the make-up is zero as no player has scored a goal.


Clearly the key to getting this right is being aware of the number on the shirt of each player. For example, the newly arrived Robin van Persie is number 20 for Manchester United. He is the club’s leading scorer this season so when he plays the potential total for shirt numbers increases. Wayne Rooney plays in the number 10 shirt so when he is selected before van Persie the total projected goalscorers shirt numbers goes down.


This is a definite case of having information ahead of the bookmakers that can pay dividends. There have been some bizarre shirt numbers in the past, especially when a player joins a club after shirt numbers have been assigned at the start of the season. A player has been seen with number 70 on his back so if playing he can significantly affect the potential make-up in this market.


10. Asses Team’s Style When Betting on First Goal


Some mangers send their teams out to set a quick tempo at the start of a match and these sides are more likely to score an early goal. The style of play adapted by a side affects the time of the first goal which is generally pitched at about 30 minutes by the spread operators. Overall statistics are used to arrive at this quote but teams are more likely to score earlier if they advised to be positive from the first whistle.


Other teams are told to feel their way into a match and not commit too many players to go forward in the early stages. This is particulary noticeable at free kicks and corners which often reveal the intentions of a team soon after kick-off. Statistics are available for when a team scores its first goal and these can be used to highlight any possible errors in the initial spread quotes in this market.


Interested to learn more and give spread betting a go? Join SpreadEx today and take advantage for their fully loaded test account and when you are ready to go live, the will give you 200GBP in free spread bets!




Have you tried Spread Betting on Soccer? Are you interested but also wary of giving it a try? Let us know your spread betting experiences below

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