Old Trafford bet no-brainer for value punters
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Football Bet Of The Week - Old Trafford bet no-brainer for value punters
Every week, bookmaker and former Racing Post chief sports betting writer Mark Worwood gives out his best football bet.
Manchester United is a good bet at a good price to win one to beat Liverpool at Old Trafford in what remains one of the marquee matches of the English Premier League season.
Bookmakers have chalked up the game with the Red Devils at around 5-6, the Reds at around 7-2 and the draw at around 11-4. One would think based on those odds that there was not much between the two great rivals instead of the 21 points that separates them after 21 English Premier League rounds.
There is no doubt in my mind that Liverpool has been the worst value team in the English Premier League for many a season this term, with bookmakers usually quoting the Reds at least three rolls off the board under their true odds.
And there is no doubt in my mind that Liverpool is at least three rolls too low for its trip east along the M62 to play the team that has usurped it as English football’s most frequent championship winner. For the record, Manchester United boasts 19 league titles to the 18 of the Reds.
A lot of people are getting carried away with Liverpool’s recent run of three consecutive victories and seven wins out of nine. I recommended that those people take a good, hard look at the quality of the teams that the Reds have been beating and, also, their record versus the English Premier League’s heavyweights under new manager Brendan Rodgers.
Liverpool has defeated fifth-tier Mansfield (2-1 away), out-of-form Sunderland (3-0 home) and bottom-of-the-table Queens Park Rangers (3-0 away) in its last three matches, while also overcoming dreadful traveller Fulham (4-0 home), newly promoted pair West Ham (3-2 away) and Southampton (1-0 home) and UEFA Europa League flop Udinese (1-0 away) when the Italian side could not qualify for the knockout phase.
In their other five games since the middle of March, the Reds have failed to beat Swiss minnow Young Boys (2-2 home) and Swansea (0-0 away), as well as losing to Tottenham (1-2 away), Aston Villa (1-3 home) and Stoke (1-3 away).
And then there is Liverpool’s series of disappointments in English Premier League matches versus the competition’s top six sides – Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham. The Reds have collected three points out of a possible 18 from their games against the division’s best half a dozen teams thanks to scoring draws with the Blues (1-1 away), Citizens (2-2 home) and Toffees (2-2 away). So Liverpool has not kept a top-flight clean sheet versus a really good opponent under Rodgers.
Manchester United has won eight and drawn two of its last 10 matches about which it was bothered – the Red Devils were not concerned about losing to Cluj and Galatasaray since they had qualified for the UEFA Champions League last 16 after just four group rounds – and, for many Old Trafford regulars, seeing their side beat Liverpool is even more important than victory in the Manchester derby clash.
Sunday’s showdown is a classic example of an English Premier League game in which the betting decision should be easy for any punter with a grasp of value. Would one be interested in backing Manchester United at 5-6 to win a home match against Everton? Yes, one would. Well, Liverpool is, at best, the equal of its Merseyside neighbour so take advantage of the continuing overrating of the Reds by bookmakers – and irrational punters – and oppose them in the cotton city.
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Is Liverpool the most overrated English Premier League team? What price do you think Manchester United should be to defeat its fiercest rival? Send me your comments.
Do you want to ask Mark a question about his experiences in the betting industry? Ask your question below and we will pick one or two from the post bag to be answered in next weeks column.
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