Betfair Trading Guidelines When A Goal Is Scored
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Betfair Trading Guidelines – When A Goal Is Scored
Betfair and other exchange operators manage several markets in soccer matches. This means betting is suspended when a significant event occurs. It takes a few minutes for updated prices to appear and that provides an opportunity to consider various trading opportunities.
In managed matches 'Suspended' appears on the screen after a goal, sending off or penalty. These are the three events that have the most influence on the relative prices for home win, draw and away win.
Events such as corners, bookings and free kicks come and go without any significant adjustment to the prices and the market is allowed to set the prices as these events occur. Odds also change over the passage of time but the laws of supply and demand take care of any price changes.
Once a penalty has been taken the markets reappear and mainly unchanged if the penalty is missed. A converted spot kick obviously results in a goal. A sending-off is deemed to be worth half a goal to the team with a full compliment of players and the odds change accordingly.
The comparative prices move most significantly after a goal. There is a direct relationship between the price for a team to win a match that is goalless and the price if that team opens the scoring.
The suspension of prices can sometimes put traders at a disadvantage if something else significant happens while the prices are being updated. It can be frustrating at times to wait for updated prices as another important event can take away the opportunity to trade.
With significant movements in prices there is scope for trading to ensure a profit or minimise a loss. One response is to do nothing and let the bet run until the end of the game and expiry. However, the options related to four different scenarios are described blow. These are impressions from trading on soccer for more than ten years.
Betfair Trading Guidelines – Favourite Backed Favourite Scores First
When the favourite in a soccer match scores the first goal the favourite fails to win only 15% of those matches. That means most games are won by the shortest priced side when they score the first goal.
There is also a better than even chance that this side will not concede a goal, though this is dependent on when the first goal is scored. Clearly the earlier the favourite opens the scoring more time is available for a reply but also there is more time for the favourite to score again.
Favourite backers are clearly in a very strong trading position after the opening goal but the statistics would suggest it is better to let the bet run to expiry rather than reduce the winnings while guaranteeing a return.
Averaged out over a league the proportion of times the fancied team goes on to win does not justify the reduction in profit in order to guarantee a return. However the market may overact more in this instance as most backers will be with the favourite.
Betfair Trading Guidelines - Outsider Backed Outsider Scores First
This represents an excellent trading opportunity as I get the impression that the favourite's price doesn't change as much as perhaps it should when they concede first or go behind. For example when Manchester City were losing 2-1 to Queens Park Rangers in last season's English Premier League title decider they were still favourites to win the match.
There wasn't much in it but the price for them to score the two goals they needed without reply seemed low and laying them seemed to be the best option. In this case they did eventually win the match but over time laying the favourites when they need to score at least once to win a match seems logical.
An aside here but an indication of how exchange betting can be costly was my bet on Manchester City to win the Premier League at 2-1 down to QPR in the last minute of normal time. My team are from Manchester but play in red so it was a case of financial recompense if the worst case scenario transpired.
It all went horribly wrong for United and I had a 40/1 winning bet but the layer in effect made a bet at 1.025 and lost. Even so on balance it makes long term commercial sense to lay the favourite if they concede the first goal in a match.
Betfair Trading Guidelines – Favourite Backed Outsider Scores First
I imagine there is a temptation to go in again on the favourite if they concede but as I explained in the previous section this might be the wrong move. Bettors like to bet on things to happen more than not to happen and favourites win soccer matches more often than not.
Obviously with the exchange model every back bet requires an equivalent lay bet but a glance at money waiting to be matched indicates that the price on the favourite does not go out as much as you would expect when they concede the first goal.
In terms of policy the recommendation is to trade out of a bet on the favourite if they are losing 1-0 in order to minimise losses rather than be tempted to back the favourites again at a price that is not a true reflection of the probability of them still winning the match.
Betfair Trading Guidelines – Outsider Backed Favourite Scores First
In this case we have to bight the bullet, take our medicine, cop for it, and take it on the chin or any other clichés that mean accepting we have made a losing bet. However, the liability may not be too significant if the outside is a big price and the stake has been small.
Obviously once favourite scores the first goal the price for them to win the match will plummet. Any counter bet will most likely result in an overall loss but in the long run these losses will be smaller than sticking with the outsider when they have to score at least twice to win the match.
Outsiders do sometimes recover from being a goal down to win, most famously when Manchester United beat Bayern Munich in the 1999 Champions League final. That match was played before Betfair existed but it is an example of the potential carnage that can take place after late goals and turnarounds.
