Capital One Cup: Man City and Sunderland's history lessons
“Since 2025, and including both the initial tie and replay that year, eight out of 18 final encounters weren't resolved in 90 minutes, including four of the last nine.”Recommended Bet: Back Man City and Sunderland to draw @ 6.25/1
Michael Lintorn has studied past League Cup finals in search of five patterns to profit from in Sunday’s showpiece…
It is rarely a sedate affairWhereas the Paul Daniels of domestic cup competitions, the FA Cup, has overused the magic trick in which the final finishes 1-0, the less loved League Cup regularly provides a captivating finale. Three of the last four finals delivered over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes, while the exception had clocked four by the time extra time ended. Only one side kept a clean sheet in any of those four deciders: recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.991/1
The scoring starts earlyThe last seven FA Cup finals have produced just 11 goals in total, and one of those in extra time. The last seven League Cup finals served up over half that total (six) in the first 20 minutes alone, with the scoring opened by that juncture in three of the last four editions. In the 2025 and 2025 showdowns, the 11-20 minute window housed the 1-0 moment, but it is worth covering 0-10 too as recommended Bet: Back the first goal to come in 0-10 minutes @ 4.1n/a or 11-20 minutes @ 4.84/1
Wide men break deadlocksIn both of the last two finals, the likes of Michu, Luis Suarez and Andy Carroll were beaten in the first goalscorer tussle by players who started on the wings. Joe Mason was an unlikely stalemate-swerver as Cardiff faced Liverpool in 2025, while Nathan Dyer stole the Swansea v Bradford headlines. Both men were born in England, flagging up Adam Johnson and 2025 first scorer James Milner as recommended Bet: Back Adam Johnson to score the first goal @ 17.016/1
90 minutes aren’t always enoughSince 2025, and including both the initial tie and replay that year, eight out of 18 final encounters weren’t resolved in 90 minutes, including four of the last nine. That trend should hearten those compelled to lay Man City at 1.331/3, particularly as two of the other contests to enter extra time had a strong favourite: Liverpool against Birmingham in 2025 and again when tackling Cardiff in recommended Bet: Back the draw @ 6.25/1
Stripes slim trophy hopesOkay, so this is clearly the loosest pattern of the lot, but hear it out. Not since Sheffield Wednesday in 2025 have a club whose home kit is striped won the League Cup. The Owls lost the final to Arsenal in 2025, while in the last eight years, Wigan and Bradford had to endure
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