Chelsea v Liverpool: Suarez to prove a bridge too far for Mourinho

“The Blues have won just one of their last five against The Reds, with Liverpool turning them over three times.”

Back Liverpool @ 3.711/4  

There’s a mouth-watering clash at Stamford Bridge this Sunday afternoon and Paul Robinson has cast his eye over the Betfair markets in search of some value…

Chelsea v Liverpool 
Sunday March 29, 16.00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 1

Following the extra time Capital One Cup defeat at Sunderland, Jose Mourinho threatened to make his Chelsea team ‘boring’ and he hasn’t failed to disappoint. They drew 0-0 at Arsenal and given their time wasting from an early stage, it’s safe to assume that they weren’t pressing hard for the win. Then on Boxing Day they edged past Swansea 1-0 at Stamford Bridge, always in control, but never threatening to rack up the goals.

A victory is a victory though and the three points earned on Thursday has them just two adrift of leaders Arsenal in third place. It’s unbelievably tight at the top with just eight points separating the top eight and Mourinho’s experience could prove vital at the business end of the campaign.

Their record at Stamford Bridge this term is fantastic – eight wins and a draw from nine outings – and that includes a victory over Man City. It is worth noting though that City were the only top eight club they’ve faced, and their record against Liverpool at home isn’t exactly great. The Blues have won just one of their last five against The Reds, with Liverpool turning them over three times.

Liverpool were beaten at The Etihad on Boxing Day but they came out of the game with huge credit. They lost 2-1, but arguably deserved more as the officials had a bit of a shocker. Nevertheless, the result moved them from first to fourth in the league, and they can’t afford a second consecutive defeat if they have serious aspirations about lifting their first ever Premier League title.

Luis Suarez continues to impress and while he didn’t score against Man City, he terrorised the defence and his link up play with Sterling, Henderson and Coutinho was superb. He’s netted 19 in 13 fixtures this term and his twisting and turning could give the ageing John Terry all sorts of headaches.

Brendan Rodgers’ will be confident of getting a result but he will be wary of his team’s record on the road. The Reds have won just one of their last five away from Anfield – losing three times – but it can’t be ignored that they faced some tough matches during that period, and in their first four away games of the season, they picked up eight points.

Match Odds  
Chelsea 2.186/5 Liverpool 3.711/4 The Draw 3.613/5

There’s only one bet that stands out to me in this market and that is Liverpool. Yes, Chelsea have been dominant at home and yes, Liverpool haven’t done too well away recently, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Chelsea haven’t really been tested at the Bridge and Liverpool have played well in the face of some tough tasks away from Anfield. The sharpness of Liverpool’s attacking play could cause all types of problems for Chelsea’s ageing defence and their record at the ground is also a huge positive.

To Score  

Luis Suarez is impossible to ignore and he’s an excellent price to score on Sunday. Available to back at 2.427/5, he is massive value to notch his 20th goal of the campaign. The Chelsea defence won’t be able to cope with his movement and he’ll also be on penalty duties in the continued absence of Steven Gerrard.

Cash Out

I’m quite confident of an away win here and that means the Correct Score market could have some enticing back to lay options. I can see both teams scoring as Liverpool’s defending leaves a lot to the imagination – especially at set pieces – so I like the look of 1-2 and 1-3 correct scores at 13.5n/a and 34.033/1 respectively. I can see both trading much lower in play to give us a decent cash out opportunity.

Recommended Bets

Back Liverpool @ 3.711/4
Back Luis Suarez to score @ 2.427/5