Cheltenham Day 1: Always Have A Plan B
Published: 5th March 2025
With the Cheltenham Festival quickly approaching, today pro punter and racing writer James Moore shares his thoughts and Cheltenham Day 1 tips, and reminds all Cheltenham Festival punters to have a back up plan handy.
There is a much overused saying in horse racing: ‘the ground is fair to all’. This may well be true when it isn’t at either extreme of the going scale, but that doesn’t mean it suits everyone.
For this reason it is always best to approach major meetings with a contingency plan, just in case things are not as you expected. Any of you who have read my blog will be aware of my view that the single most important factor in horse racing betting is the ground and until we get actual evidence (via ‘the clock), of what the ground is, all we can do is have an educated guess.
At the time of writing the ground on the Old Course at Cheltenham is Good to Soft (soft in places) and the going stick reading is 6.5 according to Turf Trax. These would appear consistent with each other and with a few showers forecast between now and Tuesday, with little forecast from Wednesday until the start of racing, very testing ground appears unlikely. The ‘better side’ of good to soft looks strong favourite, but I strongly urge everyone who owns a timepiece more accurate than a sundial to time the first race of the meeting or tune in to RUK for analysis of the time of the opener. It is only then we will know if we are dealing with Plan A, or Plan B.
Race 1: Supreme Novices Hurdle
Over the last few years this has become a veritable bun-fest for punters. Five places each-way, money back if the favourite wins, money back if you finish second or third, etc, etc. It has become almost impossible to lose on the race and punters should take advantage of all the offers that they can.
The obvious place to start is Douvan, another Mullins/Ricci potential star, just like Vautour and Faugheen last year. He comes here off two facile wins, but it should not be forgotten that he laughed at subsequent G1 winner Sizzing John on the first of those, he has scope and looks supremely athletic and could be anything, but at 7/4 you’d want to know what he was before taking that price.
The one I like is L’ami Serge. He is the ideal each-way bet (and ideal for all of
