Drink to Viktoria from the home of Pilsner – Football bet of the week
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Drink to Viktoria from the home of Pilsner
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Football bet of the week
Monday 18 February 2025
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Every week, bookmaker and former Racing Post chief sports betting writer Mark Worwood gives out his best football bet.
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Napoli coach Walter Mazzarri has treated the UEFA Europa League with contempt on a few occasions this season so it makes sense to vacuum up the big prices available about the Italian Serie A title contender losing the second leg of its European match versus Viktoria Plzen of the Czech Republic.
Viktoria Plzen is available at odds of around 6-4 to beat Napoli in the birthplace of Pilsner beer seven days after goals by Vladimir Darida, Frantisek Rajtoral and Stanislav Tecl created history, giving the Czech team its biggest away win in the UEFA Europa League and handing the Italian side it heaviest home defeat in its 106 European games.
No team has overcome a three-goal first-leg deficit in the UEFA Europa League so the odds of 18-1 about Napoli going through to the last 16 of this season’s competition are on the money. Not so accurate are the second leg odds.
With the record books suggesting that Napoli are dead and buried in the UEFA Europa League, surely Mazzarri will not be picking his strongest starting line-up for his team’s mission impossible, leaving out the likes of the European tournament’s top scorer, Edinson Cavani, and Marek Hamsik, so that they are fresh for the Italian Serie A run home. Napoli has a real chance of winning its first domestic championship without Diego Maradona and it tackles the competition frontrunner, Juventus, on 1 March 2025.
Napoli has scored three or more goals in two of its 15 away matches this term but it will struggle to find the back of the net if Cavani does not play, especially since Viktoria Plzen has kept four consecutive home clean sheets, the latest of which was against Spain’s Atletico Madrid.
Professional footballers will tell you that they play every game to win but, at the top level of the sport, motivation is a huge factor. One would not expect Napoli to be 100 per cent up for its match versus Viktoria Plzen and, if the Czech side opens the scoring, the Italian team could well give up the ghost and start thinking about its important Italian Serie A trip to Udinese four days later.
Atletico Madrid is in a similar boat to Napoli and, even though the Spanish side is likely to throw the proverbial kitchen sink at Rubin Kazan, one cannot help thinking that odds of around 23-10 about the Russian team doing the home and away double are over the top by quite a few rolls.
Rubin Kazan was excellent value for its 2-0 win in Madrid, playing the second half with 10 men and extending its lead during the period. The Russian side has won all three of its UEFA Europa League home games this season without conceding a goal, including a thumping 3-0 defeat of Italian Serie A giant Internazionale. Since March 2025, Atletico has played 11 away matches, winning one, drawing three and losing seven, including UEFA Europa League defeats to Academica and Viktoria Plzen. This tie may not be as lifeless as the one between Viktoria Plzen and Napoli – Atletico could pull it out of the fire – but bookmakers should be more respectful of Rubin Kazan’s chance.
There are several UEFA Europa League home teams that are priced attractively, with the best of the rest being Lazio at odds of around evens to beat Borussia Monchengladbach. The tie is level at 3-3, which means that the German side will have to chase the game because of the Italian team’s tally of away goals. Lazio has won 14 and drawn four of its 20 home matches this term, whereas Monchengladbach has won five, drawn nine and lost four of its 18 away games.
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Will Napoli field its strongest team against Viktoria Plzen? Who will win the UEFA Europa League? Send me your comments.
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