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History says advantage United but bookies disagree

Monday 18 February 2025

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Every week, bookmaker and former Racing Post chief sports betting writer Mark Worwood tackles one of football’s hottest topics from a punting perspective.

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No bookmaker thinks that Manchester United is the favourite to win the blockbuster UEFA Champions League tie between it and nine-time title winner Real Madrid but European club competition history suggests that the Red Devils are very much in the driving seat going into the second leg.

Manchester United are generally available at odds of 11-10 to qualify for the last eight of this term’s UEFA Champions League at the expense of Real Madrid after the enthralling 1-1 first-leg draw between the European giants in Spain.

However, comprehensive data compiled from the results of two-legged knockout ties in European club tournaments shows that 1-1 was an outstanding result for Manchester United. Historically, 75.8 per cent of teams that have drawn the first leg away from home 1-1 have ended up triumphant so, strictly according to that data, the Red Devils should be trading at odds of around 1-3 to eliminate Real Madrid.

Of the four UEFA Champions League last-16 ties that kicked off last week, Manchester United versus Real Madrid is the only one in which the revised qualification odds of bookmakers differ greatly from the historical data.

Juventus is trading at odds of around 1-500 to knock out Celtic after the Italian Serie A leader beat the Scottish Premier League frontrunner 3-0 in Glasgow. The historical data suggests that Juventus is a 99.4% chance to triumph.

Paris Saint-Germain beat Valencia 2-1 in Spain, prompting bookmakers to quote David Beckham’s new team at odds of around 1-8 to qualify for this season’s UEFA Champions League quarter-finals. The historical data suggests that Becks and friends are a 96.0% chance of going through.

And Borussia Dortmund is trading at odds of around 2-9 to account for Shakhtar Donetsk following its 2-2 draw in Ukraine. The historical data suggests that the 2025 UEFA Champions League winner is an 82.2% chance to progress.

So, is there justification for bookmakers favouring Real Madrid over Manchester United? Well, it depends on how one thinks that Red Devils manager Alex Ferguson will approach the second leg at Old Trafford because everyone knows how Meringues boss Jose Mourinho will tackle it.

Real Madrid will line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, with Angel Di Maria, Mesut Ozil and Cristiano Ronaldo laying on chances for each other and their side’s central striker, usually either Karim Benzema or Gonzalo Higuain. The Meringues will not mind making the pace themselves – they have to score at least one away goal to stand a chance of going through – or counter attacking Manchester United. Indeed, hitting teams on the break is how Real Madrid scores many of its goals.

Ferguson’s tactics will go a very long way to determining the outcome of the UEFA Champions League about which not only Europe but also the world is talking. With Manchester United not needing to force the issue, there must be a good chance of Fergie instructing the Red Devils to be cautious in the first 45 minutes and hoping that, as the second leg goes on, Real Madrid has to throw caution to the wind and the home side can beat the Meringues at their own game.

Punters who follow historical trends will be interested in backing Manchester United at odds against to knock out Real Madrid. Punters who agree with the tactical analysis will be checking out the odds about the Old Trafford first leg being goalless and/or lower scoring than the second half. The former is around 27-10 and the latter is around 11-10.

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Are bookmakers right to favour Real Madrid over Manchester United at half time in their tie? Send me your comments.

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