It’s Better The Devil You Know
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Betting On Your Own Team - Sometimes It is Better The Devil You Know…
Every week, bookmaker and former Racing Post chief sports betting writer Mark Worwood gives out his best football bet.
Betting against one’s own soccer team is not pleasant but it can be smart because, in this day and age, bookmakers have to keep track on thousands of sides and it is not possible for them to have a better feel for a specific outfit than its diehard fans who follow it through thick and thin.
My name is Mark and I am a Walsallholic. The Saddlers have been my football team for the best part of 30 years and I know from working on both sides of the fence – first as a poacher and then as a gamekeeper – that bookmakers are vulnerable to punters with specialised knowledge.
Nothing happens in the world of the not-so-mighty Saddlers without it crossing my radar. However, let me assure that most soccer bookmakers are far too busy to pay particular attention to the goings on at the Banks’s Stadium. Walsall is just a name on a coupon for the majority of them, with its form being just a raw list of numbers and letters.
It pains me but the football bet of the week is the Saddlers to be relegated from English League One at the end of this season. The bookmaker in me had been expecting BetVictor to come to its senses and slash Walsall’s odds but it has not woken up and the 9-2 that is available is brilliant value.
Until last week, the Saddlers had the unwelcome distinction of being the only soccer side to have lost to Queens Park Rangers this term. But the jokes on Walsall supporters do not end there. Their team has gone 16 games without a win but there is more chance of Lionel Messi walking out on Barcelona to link up with the Saddlers than there is of Walsall boss Dean Smith being given his marching orders.
Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich fired Roberto Di Matteo after the UEFA Champions League-winning Blues had gone two matches without a win; Saddlers chairman Jeff Bonser handed Smith a new two-and-a-half-year contract when Walsall was seven games into its current winless run, including three home losses, one to a lower-league side in a cup competition.
LLLLDLDDLLLDDDLD is 3,950 in Roman numerals and, also, the current form figures of the Saddlers. They have not tasted victory since the final week of September 2025 and the odds of Walsall paying out Smith, who has lost the plot judging by his recent post-match comments in which he blamed the officials for his team’s 1-5 at Coventry, are very slim.
The Saddlers are stuck with Smith for the duration and one would think that the only way that the Black Country side will hold on to their English League One status for next season will be if a few teams get on the wrong side of the Football League and have points deducted from their totals.
BetVictor is pretty much banking on Hartlepool, Portsmouth and Bury being three of English League One’s four relegated sides, quoting them at 1-66, 1-33 and 1-4 respectively. The Monkey Hangers are one of the worst English third-tier teams in recent years but even they managed to draw 2-2 at Walsall last month. Pompey’s price is based on them losing 10 points at some stage but even that penalty may not be sufficient to keep them below the Saddlers. And the Shakers, whose manager Kevin Blackwell does not suffer fools, are only four points behind Walsall with more than half of the season to go.
As it stands, there are probably eight English League One teams in the frame for the four relegation places. Odds of 9-2 indicate that BetVictor puts the chance of the Saddlers occupying one of the dreaded chairs when the music stops in May 2025 at around the 18 per cent mark. Anyone Walsall fan would tell you that the probability is at least double that.
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Do you bet against your own soccer side? Do you think that it makes sense to limit your football betting to games and competitions featuring your own team? Leave your thoughts below.
Do you want to ask Mark a question about his experiences in the betting industry? Ask your question below and we will pick one or two from the post bag to be answered in next weeks column.
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