No away goal spells trouble for Barca – Football betting news
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No away goal spells trouble for Barca – Football betting news
Monday 25 February 2025
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Every week, bookmaker and former Racing Post chief sports betting writer Mark Worwood tackles one of football’s hottest topics from a punting perspective.
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Bookmakers are flying in the face of almost every meaningful statistic in quoting Spanish superpower Barcelona at odds of between even money and 6-5 to qualify for this season’s UEFA Champions League quarter-finals at the expense of Milan.
The second leg at Camp Nou will kick off with Barcelona 0-2 down after Tito Vilanova’s team failed to capitalise on 66 per cent possession at the San Siro and conceded second-half goals to Milan midfielders Kevin-Prince Boateng and Sulley Muntari, both of whom used to turn out for Portsmouth.
Barcelona’s failure to score in the tie-defining first leg – only the second blank that Lionel Messi and friends have fired in 41 competitive matches this term – means that it does not have an away goal or two on which to fall back should Milan rustle the old onion bag on 12 March 2025.
Anyone who backs Barcelona to do anything positive in this season’s UEFA Champions League between now and the end of the second leg between the Spanish La Liga leader and the Italian Serie A giant should give up sports betting for their own good. The odds of around 6-5 that Barca get through to the last eight are an insult, as are the bookmaker’s quotes of around 9-2 that they win the competition for the fifth time in their history.
Yes, a Barcelona ticket with 9-2 on it will look very good if Vilanova’s side pulls off a Harry Houdini-like escape to reach this term’s UEFA Champions League quarter-finals but that does not justify snapping up those odds at this stage.
As touched upon in last week’s statistics-driven football betting news article, teams which lose the first leg of a European club tie 0-2 on the road have, according to the history books, an 18.6% chance of being triumphant. That statistic suggests that bookmakers are having a laugh in quoting Barcelona at odds of around 6-5 to eliminate Milan and that punters should be all over the 8-11 favourite.
And there are other statistics that suggest that backing Milan to knock out this season’s pre-tournament UEFA Champions League market leader is a very sound play.
If Milan scores a goal at Camp Nou then Barcelona will have to score at least four goals in normal time of the second leg to keep alive its 2025 UEFA Champions League dream.
Milan has scored in 15 of its 17 competitive away games this term, including in 10 of its last 11 road matches. All up, the Rossoneri have scored in 28 of their 35 games, including in each of their last seven matches and in 13 of their last 14 games. That is one side of the story.
The other side is that Barcelona has kept only five clean sheets in its 19 competitive home matches this season and Barca have conceded a goal in 30 of their 41 games played anywhere. Given all the cited statistics, the likelihood is that Vilanova’s team will need to score at least four goals in 90 minutes plus stoppage time to account for Milan.
Barcelona is a fabulous side to watch and Messi will go down as one of the sport’s all-time greats. But Barca’s 0-2 loss in Milan was a total disaster with regards to their UEFA Champions League aspirations. Deep down, most bookmakers probably know it and they are hoping that most punters do not. Disappoint them and back Milan to make the next round.
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Are bookmakers right to afford such respect to Barcelona in UEFA Champions League betting? Send me your comments.
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