Overs and Unders: High-flying Everton to sink the Swans

“The Swans have scored seven goals in their last three home games, so the chances of them netting against Everton look pretty high. That would leave Martinez's men needing to find at least a couple of goals themselves, which they're more than capable of, with Romelo Lukaku in particular looking razor sharp in front of goal lately.”

Everton are looking better than ever since the arrival of Roberto Martinez and Neil Harvey thinks they’ll be full of goals for their trip to Swansea. Find out which Premier League games will be goalscoring hits, and which will be ones to miss, in this weekend’s Over and Unders…

Saturday

Liverpool v Cardiff    
15:00

Ok, it’s time to admit it. With Luis Suarez in the side, Liverpool are a force to be reckoned with. I still believe they are flat-track bullies. The Graeme Hicks of English football if you like.  And I am still confident they won’t have what it takes to consistently beat the very best teams, and forge a meaningful title challenge. But against the Premier League’s lesser lights, yes, they can be devastating.

That doesn’t bode well for Cardiff, who definitely fit into the division’s ‘minnows’ category. And for Liverpool to beat them, looks akin to shooting fish in a barrel right now. In their last five Premier League home game, Liverpool’s goal tally reads like this…3,4,4,5,4,. Every one of those games had four or more goals overall. By contrast, Cardiff have scored just one goal in their last five away games. Against lower half of the table opponents, they managed to keep the score down. But at Chelsea they conceded four goals, which is the strongest form line we can probably draw here.

Liverpool should fill their boots here. It’s just a question of how many. Malky Mackay’s job is on the line, as a big defeat spells dole queue for him. So Cardiff won’t be doing anything other than parking the bus. It won’t help though. Expect a siege, and a big Liverpool win.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.548/15

Crystal Palace v Newcastle United    
15:00

For Crystal Palace, just read Stoke City from last season, because Tony Pulis is quickly transforming Palace into his former side, certainly goals-wise at least. Since being appointed manager on March 23rd, Pulis has been in charge for five games. Four of those matches have been low-scoring, including both games played at home. In fact, in both those home matches, Palace managed to keep clean sheets – a rarity under previous boss Ian Holloway. And that should be a sign of things to come for Eagles fans. Their goal-filled games under Holloway are a thing of the past. But at least Selhurst Park has a chance of becoming some kind of fortress for the home team.

Newcastle have been up and down in terms of both results and goals, but having reached the heady heights of sixth in the table, I’d suggest they’ve over-performed to this point. Low-scoring games in their last two outings also suggests that perhaps the Magpies are slowing down. Bank on them to put in a mediocre performance, against a side who should make them work harder than they’re used to.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.774/5

Sunday

Southampton v Tottenham    
13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

I wouldn’t count on either of these teams for a result right now. Tottenham are a ship without a captain, and were last seen drifting out to sea. While Southampton have also lost their way of late, and for no apparent reason. 

After a great start to the season, Southampton have now gone winless in their last five games. And of course Tottenham were blasted off the park last weekend by that 5-0 loss at home to Liverpool, which cost Andre Villas Boas his job. And that leaves both sides in a difficult place. Because neither the Saints nor Spurs have any confidence right now. Southampton’s game-plan is based around controlling possession and grinding out results. And until recently that was producing low-scoring games. I expect them to focus on getting back to basics and getting their defence in order. 

And it’s much the same for Spurs, who will have spent this week analyzing what went so horribly wrong for them defensively last week. So with confidence low, and most thoughts on rebuilding, a low-scoring game is the call in what should be a nervy outing for both sides.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.804/5

Swansea v Everton    
16:00
Live on Sky Sports 1

I really like Everton right now. They play good football, look like that can match any side in the country and appear to have ascended to a higher level than they ever achieved under David Moyes. It’s still early in his tenure, but at this stage, it really does look as though Everton’s Roberto Martinez gamble has paid off.

Everton currently occupy fifth place in the table, just one point away from the Champions League. The lure of that mammoth prize must be tremendous. But Martinez will know that he needs wins against lower and midtable sides to achieve. Draws against the likes of Swansea won’t be enough. So I’m anticipating a bold Everton side on Sunday. The Toffees had to dig-in against Arsenal and Man Utd in recent games, but now they can, and need to, expand their game. 

Swansea meanwhile, have their talisman Michu back, and I expect the goals to start flowing for him shortly. The Swans have scored seven goals in their last three home games, so the chances of them netting against Everton look pretty high. That would leave Martinez’s men needing to find at least a couple of goals themselves, which they’re more than capable of, with Romelo Lukaku in particular looking razor sharp in front of goal lately.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.991/1