Stoke goes to pot against the elite
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Stoke goes to pot against the elite
Stoke, FA Cup Finalists in 2025
There are only two all-English Premier League ties in the English FA Cup fourth round. Both of them have a Manchester favourite and one of them is the best value bet on the card.
Manchester City is trading at odds of around 4-5 to qualify for the last 16 of the English FA Cup last 16 by defeating Stoke at the Britannia Stadium in one of the feature games and they strike me as match odds well worth taking.
Realistically, it is the English FA Cup or nothing for the Citizens this term. Bookmakers are having a laugh with their 5-2 quotes about Manchester City going back to back in the English Premier League – according to one statistical model that I follow closely, Roberto Mancini’s team has about an eight per cent chance, a probability that equates to 12-1 odds – which means that the oldest football competition in the world should attract most of its attention. And, yes, I have not forgotten the English FA Community Shield. I am choosing to ignore it because it is a glorified friendly.
The Citizens have won five matches in a row, including a 3-0 English Premier League home victory over the Potters on New Year’s Day in which it was one-way traffic from the first whistle to the last. Stoke tried to frustrate Manchester City but, once Pablo Zabaleta broke the deadlock and the Potters were forced to come out to play, the Citizens created chance after chance and won comfortably.
Manchester City has such strength in depth that it is almost impossible for Mancini to name a weak starting line-up and he selected a strong side for its English FA Cup third round home tie versus second-tier Watford. With so much riding on the English FA Cup tournament, it is almost impossible to see the Citizens manager picking anything but a top team.
Incredibly, Stoke was the last English Premier League side to lose at home this season but it came crashing down to Earth with a bang, losing 0-4 to Chelsea. And it is the record of the Potters against England’s heavyweights that makes them worth opposing versus Manchester City.
Stoke has won just six of its 26 games in all competitions this term if one excludes extra time and/or penalties. The Potters have beaten only Fulham (1-0 home), Liverpool (3-1 home), Newcastle (2-1 home), Queens Park Rangers (1-0 home), Swansea (2-0 home) and West Bromwich (1-0 away). Against England’s top six, Stoke has zero wins from eight matches – Arsenal (0-0 home), Chelsea (0-4 home and 0-1 away), Everton (1-1 home), Manchester City (1-1 home and 0-3 away), Manchester United (2-4 away) and Tottenham (0-0 away).
One could make a case for backing the Britannia Stadium draw since the Potters have drawn half of their 26 games but the class gap between Stoke and the Citizens is such that the best option is to bet on Mancini’s bang-in-form visitors.
The most attractive English FA Cup fourth round home bets are Harry Redknapp’s Super Hoops, with Queens Park Rangers entertaining Milton Keynes. Surprisingly, Redknapp’s team has attracted win quotes of around 8-13 despite being two divisions above its opponent. The wily old fox will want his top-flight side to maintain its momentum – the Super Hoops are unbeaten in five matches – and they crushed third-tier Walsall 3-0 at the beginning of their disappointing season.
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