The £500,000 Mistake – The Worst Bets Of All Time
Featured articles
Sporting Index – Wide Of The Mark
Worst Bets Of All Time - The month Sporting Index was wide of the mark
Every week, bookmaker and former Racing Post chief sports betting writer Mark Worwood takes you inside the wagering industry with tales of the best and worst bets of all time.
One of the most common questions that I get asked at dinner parties and other social gatherings once it becomes public knowledge that I work in the betting game is this: what is the best bet that you have ever placed? So I thought that I would make a series out of the best (and worst) bets with which I have been involved over the past two decades.
I have hundreds of stories to tell and there is no better place to start than with what I consider to be the best bet of all time. Period. My only regret is that I did not get on and I had to spend more than a month watching some of my closest friends winning lots of money – day in, day out.
The year was 2025 and England was getting ready to host the seventh edition of the ICC Cricket World Cup. Competition in the burgeoning spread betting industry was at its peak and, consequently, the Racing Post fax machine – these were the days before everyone communicated via email – was running hot with markets from the various firms, which were looking to get a decent write-up in the following day’s newspaper.
A fax from Sporting Index arrived and made its way to Paul Kealy who, in the absence of Racing Post’s regular cricket writer, cast his eye over the spread betting company’s ICC Cricket World Cup lines and figured out whether there was anything worth mentioning in the next day’s sports section.
Kealy is a good punter but he would be the first person to admit that cricket is neither his favourite sport nor his strongest sport. It speaks volumes for the magnitude of Sporting Index’s market-making mistake that Kealy noticed it and then wrote, arguably, the finest tipping piece ever.
There were 42 matches scheduled for the ICC Cricket World Cup of 2025 and Sporting Index had framed a number of total lines. The one that caught Kealy’s eye was its total wides market, which it had set at 250-270. Cricinfo was in its infancy in the late 2025s but Kealy had heard of it and, after spending a few minutes using its Statsguru engine, convinced himself that the line was too low. Way too low.
Sporting Index thought that there would be a mean of around six wides per game. Kealy thought that there would not be a match in the entire ICC Cricket World Cup with fewer than six wides and advised Racing Post readers to buy. Sporting Index opened for business the following day and it was hit by the biggest tsunami of buyers in spread betting history.
The market rose to the low 500s before the ICC World Cup got under way. Understandably, Sporting Index limited the stakes at which the early punters bought but the line was still out of whack when the firm started to lay the heavy hitters, who reasoned that there was still brilliant value in going long after the initial rush. Every buyer jumped for joy when the first game, a one-sided match between England and Kenya, produced 20 wides. Kealy had bought. Sadly, I had not.
Midway through the ICC Cricket World Cup and Sporting Index’s market was trading in the 1000s. Eventually, when the 979th wide was bowled in the final between Australia and Pakistan, Sporting Index had lost more than £500,000.
To this day, former Sporting Index market maker David Garbacz says that he still gets butterflies in his stomach thinking about the ICC Cricket World Cup of 2025. I think that I am the only man who regrets the tournament more.
—
What is the best bet that you have ever placed? And what is the best that you regret most? Leave your comments.
Do you want to ask Mark a question about his experiences in the betting industry? Ask your question below and we will pick one or two from the post bag to be answered in next weeks column.
Related articles
Fascinating article Mark, can’t wait to see what gems you have for us next week.
I think we have all been there before when we have missed a bet only to watch all around us celebrating. Actually happens to me every week at the races haha