The Best and Worst Soccer Betting Markets for the Punter

 

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Introduction - The Best and Worst Soccer Betting Markets for the Punter

 

It's a sobering thought that statistically only 2% of sports bettors win consistently over a sustained period of time. Another interesting fact is that online bookmakers are happy if they make 8% of profit on turnover.

 

This means that most of the money staked is returned but apparently only to the fortunate 2% of us. These two facts seem conflicting but suggest it is possible to beat the bookies or exchange players by betting on sport.

 

Soccer (or football) accounts for more than 50% of internet wagers by value and considerably more by number of bets. That would suggest if there is scope to win more regularly soccer is a sport to consider when selecting our betting markets.

 

Within the huge soccer betting market there are some bets that by their nature are more attractive to the punter. Conversly, there are markets to avoid if you are serious about winning money betting on soccer. Some of the best and worst soccer bets are described below:

 

Soccer Betting Markets – The Best Football Bets

 

Singles

 

In the 'olden days' there were severe restrictions placed on how you could bet on soccer. As little as 20 years ago you could only have a single on a soccer match if it was televised live.

 

In the really olden days if you had a home selection in an accumulator the minimum selections were five teams. You were allowed a treble if the selections were all a combination of away wins and/or draws.

 

Those stringent conditions seem archaic by modern standards but they were put in place to protect bookmakers from paying out on accumulators that contained home bankers. Certain Cup matches and internationals could be covered in singles

 

There may have been an element of discouraging match fixing by not allowing single bets on league matches. That is obviously something that the bookmakers would not publicise and difficult to prove so let's just say the thinking behind the 5 homes rule was to prevent payouts when all the fancied home teams won.

 

With those restrictions now lifted you can have single bets on the 1X2 for a multitude of matches, across many countries and leagues. The profit margin on a three way soccer market can be anything between 3 and 8% but this still provide a good way of betting on soccer.

 

Asian Handicap

 

The 1X2 soccer bet is a three way but Asian Handicap bets only provide two options. They are so called due to the fact that they were first seen in Asia but now all the online bookmakers include Asian Handicap odds in their list of markets for a soccer match.

 

The odds are compiled by giving the perceived weaker team a head start, known as the ‘Handicap'. The handicap is expressed in goals or fractions of goals and the punter can back the team receiving the handicap or the team conceding the start.

 

The attraction of Asian Handicap markets for bookmakers is that the odds are compiled and handicaps chosen to establish a 50/50 probability of each event occurring. This type of market provides a viable option when two sides are badly mismatched.

 

The advantages to punters are greater choice and flexibility in betting on soccer, additional options in matches that appear one-sided and returned stakes if the match ends in a tie after the handicap has been applied.

 

Laying the Favourite When the Underdog Scores First

 

There are limited opportunities to place this type of bet as by the very nature of the comparative abilities of each side the underdog will score the first goal in a match less often than the favourite.

 

However, it is noticeable when the outsider opens the scoring the favourite's price seems not to increase in line with the salient probabilities. Bettors prefer to back favourites more than underdogs so the adjustment in the market provides a window of opportunity for a viable bet on the outcome of the match.

 

In this season's Premier League Manchester United are distorting the figures. In 13 matches as favourites they have conceded the first goal but won nine of those games. It might be wise to disregard United's matches when adopting this policy for the Premier League.

 

Both Teams to Score

 

Taking a fairly limited sample there were 50 matches played in the English Premier League during March 2025.  In those matches both teams scored on 29 occasions. That figure equates to odds of 1.72 as 58% of matches apply which is equal to about 8/11 in fractional terms.

 

In any Premiere League match the actual odds fall in line with these probabilities. However, some games are more likely than others to produce a goal for both sides. A proven policy is to examine the relevant last five home and away results for each side.

 

The bettor will have an edge in this market and therefore it is suggested as one of the best ways to bet on soccer because recent past scoring returns are a good form guide to future short term rates of scoring. The bookmakers can also refer to these statistics but they still seem to underestimate the chances of both teams scoring in a match.

 

Laying Total Goals after 60 minutes

 

There are numerous statistics available to prove this theory but an overall impression is that when there are more than the average number of goals in the first 60 minutes in soccer the rate of scoring then slows down.  I'm sure it would be possible to examine years of statistics but there is an undeniable impression that scoring slows down after a relatively high number of goals in the first hour of a match.

 

This can be a high risk policy as bets will be layed at odds up to 5.0 and it would not take too many losers to negate a good winning run. However, if the score is 2-2 after 60 minutes laying over 5.5, 6.5 and even 7.5 is a good soccer bet.

 

The exchange markets tend to overreact to more than the average number of goals in the first hour of a match. Over time laying total goals will prove to be a decent soccer bet. A favourable position can be traded if there are no further goals between the 60th and 75th minute.

 

Soccer Betting Markets – The Worst Bets

 

Season Accumulators

 

At the beginning of every soccer season especially in England and Scotland a popular bet is an accumulator on the winners of up to and including the eight professional leagues in these two nations. A four team acca on the winners of the Premier League, Championship, League 1 and League 2 in England is particularly attractive.

 

Bookmakers will take this type of bet all day as they know they basically have about eighty teams running for them over the course of the season. Signings during the season and managerial dismissals are all factors that can affect how a team performs over nine months.

 

The bookmakers offer seemingly attractive place terms but again this is another element of this type of bet in their favour. Assuming four teams are combined for the four English leagues each at odds of 8/1 the win part of the bet pays 6560/1. If just one team lets the punter down the place element return is calculated at 80/1.

 

Match Accumulators

 

The restrictions placed on singles protected the bookmakers from collusion between sides in one match and favourable returns for punters betting in singles. Live television coverage provided opportunities for singles betting but 30 yeas ago most soccer match betting was done in accumulators.

 

Any bookmaker will be happy to lay trebles or more on soccer. About 45% of favourites win matches across a wide variety of leagues and more often than not the bookie has the draw on his side.

 

The best teams win the respective leagues and form and class is generally confirmed over 38 matches. However, even good times have poor runs of form and bad teams have good runs of form. That means in any accumulator involving four teams, backing or opposing the favourite, the bookies have an excellent chance of one result helping to negate any winning bets.

 

First Goalscorer

 

The variables involved in which player scores the first goal in a match are many and varied. A team that wins most corners and free kicks around the penalty area will have a relatively high number of defenders who score the first goal.

 

In open play the attackers will be more regular first goalscorers as they spend most of the match near the opponent's goal and they are selected to play in that position because they are proven goalscorers.

 

Even so predicting who will score the first goal in a soccer match is fraught with danger. The odds on offer seem attractive but the bookmakers apply high profit margins in these markets and will often get a 'skinner' if a defender scores first.

 

At the end of March England had played 13 internationals during 2025 and scored the first goal on seven occasions. Those goalscorers were Ashley Young (winger), Danny Welbeck (forward), Joleon Lescott (defender), Andy Carroll (forward), Wayne Rooney (forward), Frank Lampard (midfielder) and Wayne Rooney (forward).

 

Only Rooney was first scorer more than once, there were six different first scorers in total and attackers netted first in slightly more than 50% of matches. This is admittedly a limited sample but indicates why betting on the first goalscorer is one of the worst types of football bet.

 

Correct Score

 

Those 13 England matches during 2025 produced 9 different final scores. Only 1-1 and 1-0 were represented more than once and three matches resulted in each of these scorelines. The favourite did not win once and five of the final scores were priced at 50/1 or greater.

 

If the first goal scorer market is volatile then betting on the correct score in a match is also a flawed long term betting policy. It is just not possible to predict with any certainty the number of goals each side will score. The prices might seem fancy but the bookies apply restrictive profit margins to these markets.

 

It is a trait of betters that they generally want to bet on things to happen rather than things not to happen. The 0-0 draw is probably the least popular correct score option and 2-2 apparently attracts plenty of intesrest. Across worldwide leagues a punter will win a 2-2 correct score bet about 3% of times the bet is placed.

 

Scorecast

 

If the correct score and first goalscorer markets represent poor value then logically a combination of these two bets is even less attractive to punters and manor from heaven for the bookies.

 

The number of variables is compounded in this market and the punter has to get so much correct in order to have a winning bet. Forwards score about 55% of first goals in soccer matches and these are the players that everyone wants to back in this market.

 

When Liverpool are playing probably 80% of first goalscorer bets would be on Luis Suarez and yes they would be mainly winners this season to date. But how often does Luis Suarez score first and Liverpool win 1-0, the most likely favourite in this market.

 

Granted Jamie Carragher does not score too often (3 goals in 600 games) but every now and again Martin Skirtel pops up with a goal. Johnny Evans has scored first in two Manchester United matches this season.

 

However, getting the first scorer correct is just half the battle. The second element is no easier and that is illustrated by the range of correct scores in English Premier League matches this season. Generally 21 scores are listed in addition to any other score.

 

A single goal win for the home side is the 7/1 favourite but the true odds are about 20/1 which illustrates why a scorecast bet is best avoided. Late goals can be conceded when a match is won and these factors all help to scupper seemingly logical Scorecast bets.

 

Matches involving sides of significant different abilities appear to provide better options. However, when a team has a comfortable lead there is absolutely no way of predicting if they will continue to look for more goals or accept the existing winning margin. One valuable pointer is that forwards tend to score the first goal more often in matches involving unevenly matched sides.

 

 

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